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As Israel and Hamas inch closer to a听听in Gaza, one of the key听听has been the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages, of which about 130 are still being held 鈥� although some are thought to have died.

Why is the prisoners鈥� ratio so crucial in the current negotiations? The answer lies in recognising the centrality of the prisoners鈥� issue when it comes to mediating the broader conflict.

As I have documented in my book,听, rates of Palestinian imprisonment are notably high. Approximately 40% of the Palestinian male population have been听听at least once. At present, there are as many as听听Palestinian prisoners and detainees in Israeli prisons, the highest number in more than 14 years.

There are two main ways that Palestinians become imprisoned in Israel. The first is via conviction in Israel鈥檚听. This is the main judicial mechanism for Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank. The听听in these courts is more than 99%, with the majority of convictions based on 鈥渃onfessions鈥� given during interrogations before most detainees have听.

Yet even plea bargains can yield long sentences 鈥� throwing stones, for example, carries a minimum sentence of听听but can be punishable by up to听.

While a minority of prisoners have been convicted of armed violence or terrorism, other charges have included听,听听or demonstrations and, of course, affiliation with Hamas or other banned groups.

The second main mechanism by which Palestinians are held is through a policy called 鈥渁dministrative detention鈥�, which Israeli human rights group听听describes as 鈥渋ncarceration without trial or charge, alleging that a person plans to commit a future offence鈥�. No evidence is disclosed, and there is no time limit to the detention period.

Although some detainees are held for several days or weeks, nearly听听of those incarcerated under administrative detention historically have been held for more than six months. Some have been held for years. While听听stipulates that administrative detention should be used sparingly, more than听听Palestinians were being held in administrative detention as of January 2024.

Why is the issue so important?

Due to the widespread nature of detention and incarceration,听听Palestinians have a friend or relative who has been imprisoned. This is especially the case in rural areas and refugee camps, where听听by Israeli troops are common.

As I have听, there is ample solidarity with prisoners among Palestinian communities 鈥� this crosses the lines of politics, class, religion and locale. Detainees are typically viewed by their communities as听听who are resisting the occupation.

By contrast, most Israelis view all prisoners as听听and consider the state鈥檚 use of incarceration and detention as necessary for Israel鈥檚 security. Now 鈥� in the aftermath of the brutal Hamas October 7 attack 鈥� most Israelis reject any听听between Palestinian detainees and Israeli hostages, and a听听oppose a full prisoner release in exchange for the hostages.

Nevertheless, Israel has demonstrated willingness to negotiate on prisoner releases in the past. In听, Israel controversially freed over 1,000 prisoners in exchange for captured soldier Gilad Shalit. In听, Israel released thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli soldiers.

Where do things stand now?

In the November ceasefire, Hamas and Israel agreed to a听听ratio 鈥� three Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli (or international) hostage released. This has resulted in 240 detainees being freed for 80 hostages. More than 170 of these Palestinian prisoners were still听听鈥撎�听aged 16鈥�18, and the other 10% were adult women.

In the current negotiations, Hamas has called for the release of听. Israel has refused this demand 鈥� but over the course of negotiations, the two sides have reportedly settled on a听听ratio. Consequently, under the proposed deal, 400 Palestinian prisoners will potentially be released in exchange for 40 Israeli hostages.

It is likely that Hamas will push for the release of high-profile prisoners in this exchange. These could include听, a long-time prisoner who many Palestinians view as a potential听.

Hamas and Israel have听听to a final deal. But it鈥檚 clear the details of the prisoners鈥� release will be the linchpin of any agreement.

In many ways, the prisoners鈥� issue encapsulates the intangible elements that lie at the roots of the broader conflict: the need for security among Israelis, and the yearning for liberation among Palestinians. Negotiations on prisoner releases can open deep-seated tensions on how to balance between those priorities, but they also reveal rare opportunities for occasional compromise.

Links

• Dr Julie Norman's academic profile
• 白小姐论坛听Political Science

• 白小姐论坛 Social & Historical Sciences