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During the first wave of Covid-19 in Britain, many scientists 鈥� myself included 鈥� said the government should be pursuing a 鈥渕aximum suppression鈥� or 鈥渮ero Covid鈥� strategy. One of the many reasons for this was to stop natural selection doing its work. When a virus is allowed to spread, spending time in different hosts, it evolves and mutates. Scientists have now found a 鈥渕utant鈥� variant of the virus that causes Covid-19, which has 17 alterations to its genetic sequences, including changes in the spike protein that enables the virus to enter our cells.

Despite the warnings, the government鈥檚 strategy throughout the pandemic has been to slow the spread of the virus and reduce pressure on the NHS, rather than eliminating Covid altogether. As late as 13 March, Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) minutes recorded that 鈥渕easures seeking to completely suppress [the] spread of Covid-19 will cause a second peak鈥�. Advisers warned that countries such as China, where heavy suppression was already under way 鈥渨ill experience a second peak once measures are relaxed鈥�. Instead of eliminating coronavirus, the logic seemed to be, Britain would learn to live with it.

Nine months later, China and South Korea have recorded three and 12 deaths per million people respectively. By contrast, based on the government data for deaths occurring within 28 days of a positive Covid test, the UK has recorded 970 deaths from Covid per million people.

Scientists only expected the virus that causes Covid-19 to undergo one to two mutations each month 鈥� but with an estimated 2 million people now infected with Covid in the UK, there are many more opportunities for the virus to mutate. The new variant seems to be accelerating transmission. Many have asked whether this will affect the efficacy of a vaccination programme 鈥� but this is something scientists could likely fix reasonably quickly by adjusting the RNA coding of the new vaccines. It鈥檚 not possible to tell yet whether the new variant of the virus will change the severity of Covid-19 in those who catch it.

What鈥檚 certain is that the greater the number of people who are infected, the more chance a virus has to evolve. The government rightly fears that a surge in cases in southern England, where transmission is worryingly high, will spread across the country, and EU member states have banned travel and limited freight from the UK in an attempt to stop the variant spreading. Measures to prevent the spread of Covid are much the same as before 鈥� restricting household mixing, social distancing, travel bans, rapid testing, contact tracing and isolation, face masks, hand hygiene and working from home. Workplaces and schools will remain shut over Christmas, and the tier 4 lockdown in London and the south-east should dampen the opportunities for infections. For now, the government鈥檚 priority should be scaling up vaccinations as quickly as possible, and offering proper support to those affected by lockdown and self-isolation measures.

But none of this was inevitable. The recent surge cannot be blamed on a mutant virus alone; in fact, government mismanagement of the pandemic meant that many more people became infected, creating the conditions for mutations to occur.

The failures of the government鈥檚 pandemic response are legion. An earlier lockdown by just one week in the spring could have halved the death rate, according to Nick Davies, a Sage adviser. Ministers wasted billions on outsourcing an allegedly 鈥渨orld-beating鈥� test-and-trace system to private companies. It has failed to monitor rates of self-isolation and provided scant financial support to those asked to quarantine at home, relying on workers who don鈥檛 get sick pay, such as those in the gig economy, to isolate while losing wages. After Britain鈥檚 spring lockdown, infection rates fell, but the government again failed to do what was needed in time to suppress the virus.

The government鈥檚 poor control of Covid-19 has increased the force of the infection and allowed more mutations to happen. On top of the economic costs of lockdown measures, the UK has now been effectively placed in quarantine by the international community. The prime minister鈥檚 repeated dithering, delays and seeming inability to make unpopular decisions have led Britain to have one of the worst death rates in the world. We have now cancelled Christmas and triggered international alarm. We can only hope that we鈥檙e not still in this position by Easter.

This article was first published in on 22 December 2020.

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• Original article in
• 白小姐论坛 Institute for Global Health
• 白小姐论坛 Faculty of Population Health Sciences